Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas envisions a massive opportunity in what he terms the “low-altitude economy” (LAE)—a market centered on aerial commercial operations within roughly one mile of Earth’s surface. Activities like logistics, urban air mobility, public safety, tourism, and emergency services—all powered by electric vertical take‑off-and‑landing (eVTOL) aircraft—fall under this umbrella.
Jonas forecasts the broader Urban Air Mobility (UAM) sector to be a $1 trillion industry by 2040, potentially ballooning to $9 trillion by 2050. Currently, startups such as Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation are racing forward, with test flights and certification efforts already underway.
What makes Jonas bullish on Tesla is not its current involvement in eVTOLs—but its core strengths in electric propulsion, autonomy, robotics, and large‑scale manufacturing. Tesla has yet to officially enter the aerial vehicle market, but CEO Elon Musk has emphasized the critical need for domestic drone and autonomous aircraft production, especially for commercial and defense use cases.
Jonas argues that Tesla’s leadership in automotive autonomy and its upcoming robotaxi service—set to debut soon in Austin—could be repurposed to accelerate entry into the aeronautical space. Any breakthrough in aerial autonomy, he believes, would compound the value of Tesla’s existing innovations. In his model, even a modest slice of a future $9 trillion market could significantly uplift Tesla’s valuation—adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars per share.
With its expertise in AI, batteries, drones, and production systems, Tesla may be uniquely positioned to redefine what’s possible in low-altitude transport—potentially transforming tomorrow’s skies as dramatically as it has today’s roads.
